Saturday 31 January 2015

Heat records fall in Santa Rosa and across the Bay Area



Heat records fall in Santa Rosa and across the Bay Area



The North Coast experienced another day of record high temperatures Saturday, the third straight day that records for peak temperatures have fallen in the region in what should be the wettest month of the year.

If you were out Saturday afternoon, chances are you broke a sweat as the high reached 80 degrees at the Sonoma County Airport in Santa Rosa at 3:59 p.m. The city’s previous record for that date was 68 degrees, set in 2009.

On Friday, Santa Rosa hit a high of 73, breaking the previous record of 68 in 2013; and on Thursday, it was 70, beating the old record of 68 in 2007.

“The weather pattern has the jet stream well to the north. A lot of storminess has been routed across the Pacific Northwest and British Columbia,” said Randy Adkins, a meteorologist with AccuWeather. “With that, mild dry conditions have been able to take hold across much of California.”

Adkins said the immediate forecast calls for more dry weather with no rain in sight, though the high-pressure system sitting over California is expected to weaken by the end of next week.

Only 0.11 of an inch of rain fell in January on Santa Rosa, deepening the state’s prolonged drought and just edging the city’s record low for rainfall set in January last year of 0.10 of an inch. The city historically sees an average of 5.93 inches of rain in January.

“That’s just illustrative of the strength of the large area of high pressure that’s been over the state for much of the month,” Adkins said.

The National Weather service said Saturday that record high temperatures were logged throughout much of the Bay Area, including Kentfield, San Rafael, Napa, downtown San Francisco and Oakland.

January saw 21 days of highs above the average daily temperature, and the first week of February should see the same.

“Temperatures will remain above average through much of next week, but I don’t anticipate too many more instances of 80-degree weather,” Adkins said, adding that “there doesn’t appear to be a very good chance of rain for much of the near future.”

Midwest Weather, Inc.: THE STORM OF THE SEASON TO STRIKE WITH HEAVY SNOW ...

Midwest Weather, Inc.: THE STORM OF THE SEASON TO STRIKE WITH HEAVY SNOW ...: Alright folks, the winter storm of the year will be one to remember for many, over 100+ million people for that matter. The actual storm i...

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Friday 30 January 2015

What's your plane's for this WeekEnd !


Looking forward to the weekend and have some outdoor plans?

A warm and dry weekend forecast for the Bay Area - lots of 60s and 70s on tap for the region.



......

7 Day Rainfall Forecast: rainfall to our north, and rainfall to our south. But outside of a few sprinkles, no rain in the forecast for our area through February 4.

7 Day Rainfall Forecast: rainfall to our north, and rainfall to our south. 
But outside of a few sprinkles, no rain in the forecast for our area through February 4.


Happy Friday! 
Fog lingering in Napa & San Jose at this hour. 
Sunny over Mt. Diablo.

.....

Thursday 29 January 2015

Tonight's cliipper seems to be on schedule and you have my forecast snowfall for tonight into tomorrow morning and the European snowfall forecast.

Tonight's clipper seems to be on schedule and you have my forecast snowfall for tonight into tomorrow morning and the European snowfall forecast.

Actually all the models are about the same with the idea of a coating to perhaps several inches possible in some inland areas. It should all be done with during tomorrow morning for the most part and then we wait for arctic air to arrive Friday night that will last pretty much in to the first part of next week.

January 29 2015...

Heading North-NEast..........

United States Low Temperatures - Saturday, Jan 31....
Once the clipper goes by very cold Canadian air will move in and take over until further notice. Temperatures will go down to single digits and below zero especially in snow covered areas. Im thinking Saturday night will be the coldest of the next several and it should certainly be as cold as it was this morning where we saw some below zero readings in Northern New Jersey, the Hudson Valley and on Long Island.
United States Low Temperatures - Sunday, Feb 1...
Sunday night comes the next threat and models are now all pretty much on the same page with snow here for Sunday night and Monday. I mentioned on my forecast page where I discuss the GFS that I was thinking along the lines of 3 to 6 or 4 to 8 for Sunday night as an early guess and the European actually shows more than that so Im thinking my numbers for now are a good early call guesstimate.
United States Low Temperatures - Monday, Feb 2...
Monday. I mentioned on my forecast page where I discuss the GFS that I was thinking along the lines of 3 to 6 or 4 to 8 for Sunday night as an early guess and the European actually shows more than that so Im thinking my numbers for now are a good early call ......
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Wednesday 28 January 2015

Thursday Severe Weather: Dixie Alley Posted on February 18, 2014

Thursday Severe Weather: Dixie Alley

A powerful storm system will bring an appreciable threat for severe weather on Thursday to portions of “Dixie Alley”. Areas from Indiana and Ohio, southward to the Gulf of Mexico may see the risk for severe thunderstorms including damaging winds, large hail and possibly a few isolated tornadoes. Below are some images detailing the threats. You can use our advanced forecast system to look for yourself here!
SPC Day 3 Outlook
SPC Day 3 Outlook
Forecast Radar
Forecast Radar
Instability (left) - Supercell Composite Parameter (right)
Instability (left) – Supercell Composite Parameter (right)

Vorticity (left) - Wind Shear (right)
Vorticity (left) – Wind Shear (right)

Thursday 22 January 2015

Huge System to Bring Dousing Rain and Severe Threat to the Deep South

Huge System to Bring Dousing Rain and Severe Threat to the Deep South

A potent upper-level low, combined with a surface low in the Gulf of Mexico, will continue to track eastward through late Saturday. This will lead to isolated thunderstorms and heavy rainfall that could produce localized flooding or flash flooding. Thursday there is a general risk for thunderstorms from the Storm Prediction Center that stretches from San Antonio, Texas to Mobile, Ala. (see graphic below). Rainfall amounts ,through midnight, will range from one to three inches. The heaviest rain will fall along the Gulf Coast — from Houston, Texas to New Orleans, La.


Friday, the area of low pressure will continue to track along the Gulf Coast and bring the potential for moderate to heavy rain from Mobile, Ala. to Wilmington, N.C. In addition the the rain, the Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Okla. has issued a “marginal” risk for severe weather — across parts of northern Florida, southern Georgia and coastal regions of the Carolinas — on Friday. The main threat in this area will be damaging wind gusts, but an isolated tornado can’t be ruled out in the vicinity of the surface low pressure. The heaviest rain will affect large sections of the Florida Panhandle to southern Georgia. Again, watch for localized flooding in these areas.


This low will continue to track up the East Coast and intensify, possibly becoming a nor’easter. Stay with Weather Nation for the very latest on this ever-changing forecast.

Wednesday 21 January 2015

EUROPEAN SHOWING INTENSE MAJOR STORM JUST OFFSHORE SATURDAY


EUROPEAN SHOWING INTENSE MAJOR STORM

JUST OFFSHORE SATURDAY
WHILE IT IS NOT THAT DIFFERENT FROM THE OTHER MODELS, WHERE IT IS DIFFERENT IS THAT IT IS EVEN STRONGER WHICH MEANS COLDER AND HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS.
 JANUARY 21TH 2015

# 2


The European this afternoon was much like the other models in showing a major storm along the east coast. This was no surprise  of course. However where it did surprise was in the intensity. All major models show and intense low around 980 mb. The Canadian was the deepest of them until the European took them out and has something in the 960's! This is a very intense feature. Those 10 extra millibars mean a lot when you are talking about a one degree difference in temperature in one location or another. The European would have the same idea as the others except it has a much bigger and deeper area of accumulating snow from Washington DC to Philadelphia, to New York City to Boston including immediate coastal locations. It argues that there will be a swath of one foot plus snow up and down I-95. 

Now we certainly can see how this could happen and if this were a winter where we had several snowfalls going into this weekend I would probably lean in the European's direction. But given that we are still waiting for a  4 inch snowfall in some areas let alone 8 or 12, I feel pretty good with sticking with my earlier idea of a the band of snow in the same area described above but keeping it at 4 to 8 inches for now and then revisit this tonight and Thursday.
# 3
# 4


The four map sequence unfortunately does not show us the in between map for Saturday evening as it is not available publically or for reproduction but it has a 968 low just south of Long Island with cold air everywhere. Basically it is a major snow producer even though it is moving like a rocket ship up to Eastern Canada. Once that's done we get a break and we still see the model trying to make another storm in the ocean but as we said a few days ago having 2 major storms back to back like this is a very rare occurence. We will continue to focus on the first one first. The bottom line is that a major snow producer is coming and it is a question of whether we wind up with a 4 to 8 inch snow which i posted about earlier or if it winds up being a fast hard heaving dumping snowstorm of one foot or more for everyone. Joe Cioffi has been a meteorologist for the last 35 years and has been in the New York, New Jersey, and Long Island area for the nearly the last 30 years. You can also find him on facebook where he posts daily on his weather page. Joe is also on Twitter @joecioffi





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