Bering Sea Superstorm: Hurricane Force Wind Warnings Issued Around Alaska's Aleutian Islands
A Bering Sea Superstorm is now developing, partially from the former , and will whip up hurricane-force winds in parts of Alaska's Aleutian Islands as well as giant waves in the Bering Sea.
As of Friday morning, U.S. time, the ex-Nuri was deepening quickly south of Russia's Kamchatka Peninsula. Sustained winds first topped 40 mph around 5 a.m. AKST in , located in the far western Aleutians.
The ex-Nuri has joined up with the polar jet stream and a very strong disturbance in the mid-latitude belt of westerly winds, leading to explosive development of low pressure.
Forecasts from both the European (ECMWF) and American (GFS) computer models have consistently predicted this extremely powerful non-tropical storm to bottom out at peak intensity below 930 millibars over the western Bering Sea, near the western Aleutian Islands of Alaska Friday night into Saturday.
In fact, both models have repeatedly suggested the pressure of that post-tropical storm could go as low as 920 to 925 millibars -- almost as low as its estimated pressure was as a super typhoon. If that happens, it would be the strongest low-pressure system ever observed in or near Alaska since October 25, 1977, when a 925 millibar pressure reading was recorded on a ship docked at Dutch Harbor, Alaska. This system may also potentially be one of the lowest sea-level barometric pressures ever observed on Earth outside of tropical cyclones and tornadoes.
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For reference, the lowest central pressure of Hurricane Andrew (1992) was 922 millibars. Despite the potential of a similar pressure at its peak, wind speeds in extratropical cyclones such as the upcoming storm are much lower than hurricanes, because the pressure gradient is spread out over a much larger area than in a hurricane.
Potential Impacts
The map below shows the European model wind speed forecast for Saturday morning, with the darkest red colors showing the strongest wind speeds in the western Aleutians and east of Russia's Kamchatka Peninsula.
A large swath of very strong sustained winds, at times hurricane-force, will howl over the western Aleutian Islands of Alaska and adjacent Bering Sea.
The National Weather Service in Anchorage has issued a hurricane force wind warning for the waters surrounding the far western Aleutians as well as parts of the southwestern Bering Sea. Sustained winds could reach 80 mph in those areas.
Meanwhile, a for the far western Aleutians themselves through Saturday morning. In addition to the strong sustained winds pictured on the map above, there could be localized gusts of 90 mph or higher, especially where rugged terrain enhances the winds. The strongest winds will be southerly to southwesterly in origin.
Fortunately, the storm is forecast to lose some of that ferocity later in the weekend, but may remain somewhat stalled over the Bering Sea into Sunday or Monday.
These strong winds, coupled with the potential long duration of this storm, will whip up giant waves over parts of the Bering Sea and north Pacific Ocean.
Wave heights will likely top 45 feet near the western Aleutian Islands Friday night into Saturday, making for very dangerous conditions for all marine vessels not protected.
Swells around 22 feet may reach the eastern Aleutians and Pribilof Islands, including , Saturday into Sunday. St. Paul (population: 453) is notorious for intense storms, with a harbor that is susceptible to southwest winds, according to the .
A Jayhawk helicopter crew was sent by the U.S. Coast Guard to Cold Bay, Alaska, and the Cutter Munro was put on alert to help boaters stranded in the storm, if needed, .
As these large swells finally reach the coast of western Alaska, some minor coastal flooding and erosion is possible Sunday into Monday.
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