Weather Analysis and Forecast

2/17-2/21

National Weather Analysis and Forecast 

Good evening on Innovation Weather Blog presented by lead forecaster, Be a rather busy weekend and now looking forward to what could become a rather interesting week in store with possibility of not only a winter storm invading the Great Lakes and Northeast, but also a massive warm-up for two-thirds of the Eastern US. We have a flooding situation to be concerned about and a possibility of some severe weather invading the Tennessee, Mid and Lower MS Valley through Thursday PM and evening hours. 

We are noticing the colder air is retreating and remaining well off to the North in the higher latitudes of Canada. We are now expecting a major warm-up of above average temperatures for quite a large area of the lower 48. Along with the warm-up comes a persistent progressive flow of storm systems moving from West to East across the country. This will continue for well into next week.

The Nor'Easter that cause a massive ruckus of snowfall over Northern New England has finally moved off to the Northeast and taking the sharp pressure gradient along with it. Winds were reporting up to 70 to 75 mph gust along the Massachusetts Cape Cod/Martha Vineyard area. 12-18 inches of snowfall fell in this region as well, as the storm system had a bombogenesis type growth from Saturday PM through out the day on Sunday. We have a great night, most of your Monday will have a quieter and tranquil pattern of weather to allow the region to re-cooperate.

The Southern Plains has a surface low taking progression and moving along into the Great Lakes region for tomorrow evening. This is expected to bring light to moderate snowfall over the majority of the Upper Midwest through Great Lakes and Northern Mid-Atlantic states. Showers and thunderstorms are forecast for the lower to middle Mississippi Valley and into the Deep South. The wintry mess is light sleet and freezing rain in the forecast for the majority of the Midwest stretching from Middle Nebraska all the way into Southern Iowa and Northern Missouri. This stretch of wintry mess will then enter into the Ohio Valley for Monday PM and throughout the evening hours. This is a system we are going to watch closely. I will explain this in more details further along in the blog.

The warmer weather is expected as this storm system passes by and an upper level ridging will cause a surge of Southerly flow into the Central portions of the country. Southern Texas could be touching 90 degrees or better for the majority of the week ahead.

In the Western states, we find a sustained moisture flow and continual frontal passages from the Pacific Ocean to keep conditions unsettled for the majority of the week ahead across the Pacific Northwest and the Great Basin. Rainfall in the valleys and heavy snowfall in the higher elevations of the Rockies.

We are expecting a wide range of accumulation forecast ranging from 2 up to as much as 6 to 7 inches in some locations especially in the Upper MS Valley and Upper Midwest. The majority of the states of WI, MI, and Northern OH will be in the 3-5 range. Central Lower Michigan could see 1-3 inches with a few in the 4 range locally. Across Central Ohio, Central IN and IL we could be dealing with 2-4 inches of snowfall and a bit of sleet mixing in. Anyone South of Interstate 70 to the Ohio River in IL, IN, and OH will see up to an inch of snowfall and up to an 1/2 inch of a mixture of snow, sleet, freezing rain, and possibly rain. Southern IL, Southern IN, and most of Northern KY will see mainly rainfall with a little bit of sleet mixing in a few times throughout the afternoon. 

We are seeing temperatures in the Midwest at slightly below average at the start of the week and then beginning to warm up to almost 10 to 20 degrees above by Thursday. Cooler weather is expected to return to the region by the end of the week and through the weekend, especially across the Upper Midwest and Northern Plains. This is when we will see the next weather system on Thursday to bring the possibility of snow and wintry precipitation across the majority of the Upper Midwest and Upper MS Valley to rainfall in the Southern Great Lakes and Ohio Valley with possible thunderstorms and some could reach severe limit depending upon instability in the atmosphere, right now it is hinting toward the possibility of damaging winds, some hail, but limited tornadoes for the time being. 

The bigger story of the week across the Midwest will be the flooding and rapid melting snow depth. Localized flooding possible with ice jam on the local rivers, tributaries, streams and creeks. This will need to be very closely. 

Looking into the future on the long term ensembles and we see a possible storm system for Next Saturday to roll into the Central Plains and Great Lakes region with cold air returning, a possibility of a winter storm is greatly possible for the region. This is a storm system we are watching closely on the models. 

Shift over to the Northeast, we are noticing a dry Monday for the majority of the region, but Tuesday is going to bring the winter storm through from the Midwest and Great Lakes. Temperatures are expected to be below normal during the early parts of the week and gradually warm up to above normal by Thursday and Friday. For the majority of the region 2 to 4 inches is likely bid for most of the I-95 corridor between Philadelphia to Boston, those of you in the Baltimore-Washington area will see up to a possible inch of snowfall mixing in with sleet and freezing rain for the majority of the storm's time line. We are expecting all rainfall for the latter half of the week storm coming through from the Ohio Valley. We also noticing the possibility of a flooding situation unfolding as well with the rising temperatures and melting snow depth.

The Western states are going through some pretty rough weather with very windy conditions with these series of disturbances off the Pacific. Heavy rainfall is the main forecast for the Pacific Northwest and through Northwestern portions of California. Rainfall amounts up to as much as 8 inches in some areas are possible leading to severe river flooding in many areas. 2 to 4 feet of snowfall is likely for the week ahead for the majority of the higher elevation of the Cascades and Northern Rockies mountain regions. Avalanche concerns are greatly increasing across the region as temperatures will be in the 30s through 50s in the Northern zones to the 20s and 30s in the Northern Rockies. 80s for most of the Desert Southwest.

Finally, moving on to the Southern states, The focus here is a few rain showers damping the day across the majority of the Central Plains and stretching Southeast across portions of AL and the Southern Appalachians for your Monday. Temperatures are going to be much below normal for the majority of the region for your Monday up to 15 degrees cooler than average. Southern Texas is looking at 70s and 80s. A few showers will remain in the forecast for the region of Eastern Texas into some parts of the Southeast for Tuesday. A major warm up on the way from Wednesday and on through the week ahead as temperatures will reach the 60s in the Far Northern Areas to the 80s in the Southernmost areas of the Gulf Coast. Thursday and Friday is my main concern for the possibility of seeing showers and severe thunderstorms. The model guidance is indicating a lack of instability that could pretty well hamper this event. This is something we are closely watching as the week progresses.

LATEST RADAR/SATELLITE:

Looking ahead to the Winter Storm scenario:

WEATHER WATCH:

TEMPERATURE FORECAST NEXT 48 HOURS/RAINFALL AND THUNDERSTORM FORECAST:

MONDAY'S HIGH TEMPERATURES

MONDAY'S LOW TEMPERATURES

TUESDAY'S HIGH TEMPERATURES

MONDAY'S THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK

NATIONAL 24 HOURS RAINFALL OUTLOOK

WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK:

LATEST NATIONAL SNOW DEPTH 

NATIONAL SNOWFALL FORECAST FOR THE 

NEXT 24 HOURS

FUTURECAST:

Monday at Midnight, we see the fast-moving clipper system that left a few inches of snowfall across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley will move into the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic states, a couple inches of accumulations are possible across the interior Northeast and New England region. A storm system in the Rockies will be spreading some valley rainfall with some snow showers in the higher elevations. We have a few rain showers associated with the next weather system that will impact the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley for Monday PM and into the day on Tuesday across the Southern Plains. A deep Pacific storm system will bring onshore flow of heavy rainfall across the Pacific Northeast and into Northern California.

Monday at 12 Noon EST, we see the storm system from the Southern Plains phasing into the storm system from the Rockies. This will begin the amplification for a winter storm to effect the Upper Midwest, Upper and Mid Mississippi Valley in the form of snowfall in the cooler air sector and freezing rain/sleet/and snow for St Louis, Chicago, Kansas City and moving on East. Several inches of accumulations are possible across the Upper Midwest especially in Minnesota, Northern Iowa and going into Northern Wisconsin. Storm system off the Pacific coast will move inland across the Pacific Northwest spreading heavy rainfall across the valleys with substantial heavy snowfall across the Cascades and Northern Rockies.

Tuesday at Midnight EST, the winter storm system will be entering into the Northern and Central Great Lakes providing light to moderate snowfall across most of Eastern Wisconsin, majority of Michigan and Northern IL and IN, 3-5 inches of snowfall is expected in a wide range across this region. Freezing rain/sleet/and snow will be the majority of the forecast across the Central Indiana, Western and Central Ohio where up to an inch of accumulations is possible in these areas. Lower Ohio Valley and stretching into the Southeast and Gulf states, we are looking at primarily rainfall with a few embedded thunderstorms along the Gulf Coast.

Finally wrapping up FUTURECAST with a look at 12 NOON EST, Tuesday, we see the storm system from the Great Lakes will now enter into the Central Appalachians, Mid-Atlantic, and portions of the Northeast. Light to moderate snowfall is expected from the Upper Ohio Valley into the majority of Pennsylvania and New York state. Mix is possible across portions of West Virginia and possibly Southeastern PA and Northern Maryland. Rainfall is the agenda from Central Maryland through the Carolinas with some showers and thunderstorms likely for the Southern areas of Texas and along the Gulf Coast. Another storm system in the Pacific will usher onshore moisture in the form rainfall for the Pacific Northwest and Northern California Valleys with mountain snowfall in the Cascades and Northern Rockies.