Severe Weather Threat Outlook

Severe Weather Threat Outlook 

(Central and Southern Plains, Mid to Lower MS, TN, Ohio Valleys, and portions of the Gulf States through Friday)

Good Tuesday afternoon to everyone. discussion of the upcoming severe weather threat across the Mid to Lower MS Valley into the Tennessee/Lower Ohio Valley and portions of the Gulf States. There is a major warm-up on the way and it is current on-going across the mid section of the country with the pattern shift bringing the warmer air inland. The consequences are reluctant to spawn up some strong to severe thunderstorms beginning on Wednesday evening in the Southern Plains and then advancing as a powerful cold front with linear convection ahead of the front for Thursday afternoon and evening.

A very strong low pressure center will bring some very strong pressure gradient in the form of some powerful, gusty winds just above the surface across the Central Plains and then pulling warm, moist, unstable air from the Gulf of Mexico into the Southeast, Mid to Lower MS Valley and into the Lower Ohio Valley. These ingredients will set the stage up for the severe weather.

Strong storms are in the forecast for mainly Wednesday evening the beginning of the three-day event with Kansas and Missouri getting into action first. Mainly damaging winds will be threat, nothing more. Thursday begins the height of the actual threat. By the graphics, you can see where the main line of severe storms will fire and the main threat being damaging winds in excess of 70 miles per hour or greater, and along comes embedded tornadoes along the linear convection with some large hail possible as well. 

Friday, this system is expected to weaken gradually as it pushes eastward into the Eastern Seaboard of Florida to the Southern Mid-Atlantic. Damaging winds is the strong indication of the main threat. We should be done and over with this threat by dusk on Friday. 

The set-up ingredients for the severe weather is like this. The Northern Jet Stream is retreating Northward into the Southern Canada, as it does so, warm, moist, and unstable Gulf of Mexico air will begin to emerge Northward ahead of the frontal boundary beginning tomorrow afternoon and evening ahead of the strong cold front moving across the Mid-section of the country and advancing eastward. The low pressure center will continue to amplify and strengthen as it pulls Northeast into the Upper Great Lakes for Thursday afternoon and evening. Placing a higher, elevated risk for severe weather.

Thursday Thunderstorm Outlook including a marginal threat of strong storms, and the indicator of severe.

Closer view of the cities including in the Severe Weather threat for Thursday indicates pretty substantial area of high-dense population. The threats including damaging, straight-line winds of 70 miles per hour or greater. Large hail. Heavy rainfall with localized flooding, and a few embedded tornadoes in the strongest cells.

Dew point temperatures and the Energy Helicity are both in the favor category for a good substantial event especially across Northeastern LA, Southwestern MS, and into most of the Tennessee Valley. We can't occlude the Ohio Valley with this potential risk factor for severe storms as well.